The way the 1998 chauvinistic military misadventure did, should any harm come Ethiopia’s way as a consequence, Eritreans should be reminded and warned that all the recitations and endless cry of “final and binding”, might get them temporary attention in the quarters of the western powers, but reality dictates that the western powers can not permanently police Eritrea’s living arrangement with its neighbors, especially Ethiopia. It is a matter of time that Eritrea pays for its actions, if not now, then, it will definitely be tomorrow. Eritreans should come to reality, that what ever hurts Ethiopia, by way of Eritrea, cannot benefit Eritrea in the final analysis. The reverse is also true. Ethiopia can’t also benefit at the expense of Eritrea. What Ethiopia is claiming is solely hers.

The only way Eritreans can hope to live in a peaceful neighborhood is to sit down and negotiate, separate fiction from reality, abandon falsified history built on deception for over the last 30 years of bloodshed, and have the willingness to listen to the claim of the other side, without any preconditions attached. It is time for reality to sink that what ever they have gotten from Ethiopia was, what Meles and Isayas cooked, and has nothing to do with the Ethiopian people, there is no binding legality by default. To the Ethiopian people, whatever papers signed by Meles with Eritrea were farce and thus declared null and void. The Ethiopian people had no input nor did they know their contents. They were done behind their backs and despite their strong opposition to. Eitreans should climb down from their emotional roller coaster, and try to see the strategy they are using to humiliate Ethiopia can only bring destruction.

Selective Reading of International Law

In the relationship of world governments, the term international law, or international conventions have come to pass as the rule and will of the western powers. What ever suits the western powers has been imposed on the rest of the international community, as sacrosanct rule of law, only to be tampered with at their discretion.

When country’s like the US and U.K, travel across continents and wage wars, it is termed as protecting the security and well being of their respective nations. The behavior of the British, in international affairs, for example is a stark display of sheer power dictating norms of international relations. The British used all their military and diplomatic might to wage war all the way in South America, and kicked Argentina from the Falkland Islands, claiming longstanding strategic interest, and the international community remained mum. Why? Because, international law does not apply to the powerful. On the other hand, in a similar case, in the South China Sea, the British were sheepish in the face of Chinese muscle, and they have to deliver Hong Kong to the Chinese in a silver platter. And that also was acceptable to the international community.

Ethiopia’s actions to safeguard its sovereignty on the other hand, is ridiculed, and called “violation of international law”. Should the Ethiopian Ambassador to Britain say something about Britain’s colonial behavior in Northern Ireland, and the human rights of the Irish suffered at the hand of the British for centuries, the British government would demand his recall immediately, for officially meddling in the internal affairs of Great Britain. On the other hand when the current British Ambassador to Ethiopia, in breach of accepted diplomatic norms, comes out in public and insults the Ethiopian people and its government, and makes mockery of its’ sovereignty, he is speaking for the “civilized world”, and the international institutions they control nod in agreement. Perhaps, the fact that the western powers use money, to manipulate Africa’s autocratic rulers, could have compelled him to attach such attributes to the Ethiopian people, when he offered money to build “a better Badme”, and belittled its significance to the Ethiopian people.

Ethiopia Should Prepare for a Swift and Decisive Action

Ethiopia did not break any law international or otherwise, lest some powers want to take the liberty of interpreting it as such. The Ethiopian people are only saying that they will defend their sovereignty at any cost. It is has become the norm now that if you are weak, then any body with self serving interest can bully you around with impunity. If you are strong and say no, then the matter is all different. It is due to the military strength of both India and Pakistan that no one dares to impose a solution on the Indo-Pakistani conflict. It is open secret that, Israel has defied the entire world community minus the USA for more than four decades, and did not give a hoot, no matter how many resolutions were passed against it. And who would dare to impose a solution on Cyprus, and tell Turkey or Greece to comply with whatever resolution the Security Council might come up. The answer is, it is out of the question. In a similar fashion, Nigeria’s oil power has the lips of the western powers zipped, in the dispute with Cameroon. But, if you are weak and poor, even your God given rights to exist require the “good will” of the rich and powerful. Such is the reality in the power politics of the western world, which they wanted us call it international relations or international law.

In any context any punitive action against Ethiopia in defending its sovereignty will be a declaration of war, tantamount to the 1998 Eritrean aggression, or the Italian aggression before it, which became the” nail on the coffin” of the League of Nations. In the event such an action is contemplated, Ethiopia should take a swift and decisive action in mobilizing it’s human and material resources, and deal with the external elements posing a threat to its sovereignty and survival. The first thing to do is declare the so-called Algiers Agreement null and void. 2nd the already defunct so-called EEBC should be declared also null and void and relegated to history’s dustbin. 3rd all military and civilian personnel of UNMEE should be expelled form Ethiopian soil, as this mission has clearly taken the Eritrean side, and its leader the SGSR, Mr. Lagweila has behaved as an envoy of Isayas, by operating outside the mandate of UNMEE. His shuttle diplomacy around the diplomatic circles around the glob, such as the EC headquarters, and his trip around Africa soliciting international pressure on Ethiopia to implement the illegal EEBC decision was uncalled for and outside the mandate of UNMEE. Ethiopians are wondering why the Ethiopian government tolerates this open transgression by the SGSR.

It should be understood that the cardinal rule in the modus operandi of peacekeeping missions is neutrality among the parties in conflict. As a peacekeeping mission, UNMEE’s mandate is to monitor the movement of troops and help in confidence building, and report its observations to the Secretary-General. Border demarcation is the responsibility of the border commission. Equally, the border commission on the other hand has ignored the fate of the local communities and the reality on the ground in its decision. Having read the signals from both leaders in the conflict of their accord to benefit Eritrea at the expense of Ethiopia, it took a “politically correct” decision to suit the circumstances. It is obvious; from its deliberations the commission recognized the mishmash and dismal presentation of the Ethiopian side, but took a” politically wise” decision to benefit Eritrea. In the end justice has suffered, and with it, the heightening of the conflict. Together, UNMEE and the border commission has been giving Eritrea the wrong signal and their actions and messages are encouraging Eritrea’s belligerence and refusal to come to the negotiating table, by insisting that it is a closed matter, and calling for international pressure on Ethiopia. Thus the above two bodies should be called redundant as they are exacerbating the already tense atmosphere and their removal form the scene can only help to reduce tension and clear the way for a meaning full and realistic dialogue.

The above three steps should serve a stern warning to both Eritrea and those who contemplate punitive action against Ethiopia, that the Ethiopian people are not going to be pushed around and give away their sovereign territories because of century old Italian maps whose significance was long dead. If on the other hand the powers to be continued on their belligerence, and apply punitive measures, then this is a matter of survival for Ethiopia. Nations take whatever means they have at their disposal to survive. In this respect, the western powers will find Ethiopia an easy prey, due to the fact it is land locked, and the fact it is land locked, has also diminished its strategic importance, and could subject it for punishment with impunity. To survive Ethiopia has no other alternative but regain its natural sea access by all means. This action will, primarily free Ethiopia from strangulation, and gain sea access and access to international markets for its import/export, and secondly change the balance of geopolitics favor, given the world powers, ignore, detest, humiliate the weak, who have no collateral, and thirdly, unify Ethiopians more than before, and rally behind the government, such as happen in 1998-2000, albeit the leadership squandered it by signing the illegal Algiers Agreement, to Ethiopia’s detriment.

The Ethiopian government should seize this moment, invoke the spirit of Tewodros, Yohannes, Alula, Balcha and Hayelom, and carry its’ patriotic duty, by mobilizing the Ethiopian people, and inform them duly the magnitude of this crisis. The government should use the wisdom of the elders, the expertise of the educated class and the will power of the Ethiopian people to foil this threat to the country’s survival. At this juncture there is no dilly-dallying, and if the current leadership does not poses what it takes, then they should give way for others to carry the banner. This also should serve as a wake-up call for all Ethiopians, that we should put aside all parochial interests, and unite to work for the economic emancipation of Ethiopia. This is the only way to regain the dignity of our people, and with it protect the sovereignty of our country.

The bottom line is, it does not pay for Eritrea to campaign for the punishment of Ethiopia, because once the Ethiopian people are cornered, that will unleash the sleeping giant within and bring the conflict to its logical conclusion. There will not be a second chance for Isayas. He cannot eat his cake and have it at the same time. No more.

A United and Democratic Ethiopia shall prevail!
Tigrean International Solidarity for Justice and Democracy