Meles Zenawi more and more contested
ION
April 2, 2004

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Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is now losing the authority that he had regained over the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF, hard line core of the EPRDF in power in Addis Ababa) when he excluded dissidents led by Tewolde Wolde Mariam in 2001.

Once again, critics of Meles Zenawi and his supporters are making themselves heard within the TPLF party, making the Prime Minister ever more aggressive against his detractors, whoever they may be. This emerging political crisis is pushing TPLF dissidents to improve their methods of propaganda (ION 1080) and to strengthen their contacts with the Tigray population, Tigrayan expatriates abroad and their sympathizers in the armed forces.

The perspective of a coup that might oust Meles Zenawi from power has become the subject of debate in certain Tigrayan dissident circles.

MELES ZENAWI AGGRESSIVE

While he can count on the loyalty of men like Seyoum Mesfin (minister of foreign affairs) or Samora Yunis (chief of staff of the Ethiopian army) the Prime Minster is very wary of other Tigrayan executives.

During an EPRDF seminar at the beginning of February, he criticized several ministers for their ineffectiveness (Adisu Legesse, Tefera Walwa), and also attacked the mayor of Addis Ababa Arkebe Oqubay, saying that he had done nothing and had lost sight of the TPLF aim of "revolutionary democracy." Zenawi is annoyed that Oqubay does not submit to his diktats and that he is beginning to become popular within the TPLF, particularly in Addis Ababa.

The Prime Minister feels so misunderstood that he used a ploy to defend his policies: he published a long text in English on the web site Aiga1992.org under a pseudonym which was later published in Amharic by Abyotawi Democracy, the organ of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front.

REVOLT IN TIGRAI

The peaceful protest demonstration by the inhabitants of Aby Adi (Tigray) at the beginning of March was a warning shot across the bows of the Prime Minister. A TPLF delegation led by Tsegai Berhe, president of the Tigrai Regional State, recently came to this town to ask its inhabitants to be patient in their basic demands (electricity, access to running water, accessible roads).

Some tens of intelligence and defense ministry agents were set up in the town to prevent other protests and to catch the leaders as soon as they get the order. Meles Zenawi must handle this affair prudently if he is not to give a handle to TPLF dissidents with which to criticize him.

Meanwhile, the inhabitants of the Tigrai small towns are threatening to take more concrete action. The government has just refused residents of Maichew and Samre the authorization to organize a peaceful protest this week.

THE GAMBELLA DEBATE

In the federal parliament also, TPLF MPs no longer speak with a single voice. Last week, during a session chaired by the deputy speaker, Petros Olango, the TPLF MPs did not appreciate the report by Abay Tsehaye, minister of federal affairs, on the recent confrontations in Gambella (in the west of the country).

Tsehaye, who is a former TPLF dissident but now a loyal follower of the Prime Minister, considered that the violence was due to anti-government forces, whereas MPs from the Gambella region accused the Ethiopian army of being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of civilians.

The parliamentary Legal and Administrative Affairs Standing Committee, chaired by Asmelash Woldeselassie, a TPLF dignitary, was mandated to solve this difference of opinion. To the great displeasure of Abay Tsehaye, this committee proposed the setting up of a "neutral" commission to investigate the causes of the violence and the role of the government forces.

TPLF MPs protested against this proposal, which was very similar to one made a week earlier by the opposition MPs, including Beyene Petros and which had been rejected by parliament. The debate is continuing now on the problem of how to judge the "neutrality" of such a commission and how it should be composed.