2005 elections and the unity of the opposition
By B. Tsehaye
April 13, 2004
I am deeply encouraged to see a contribution from Ambassador Tesfaye Habisso, the Ethiopian Ambassador to Uganda. His pertinent observations regarding the need for the government to create an environment for free and fair elections are very much appreciated, and they are copied hereunder:

“The urgent task for the incumbent government therefore is to create conditions to promote mutual trust and confidence between groups and organizations which are committed to peace and democracy, and interested to be parties to the political process. This can be done when all of us show in words as well as in deeds that we are committed to respect the verdict of the people and that we are not in any way entitled to impose our will by force or pressure on the people. Belief in and commitment to the principle that the people are the ultimate arbiters of policy matters is fundamental to building trust and confidence.
Where all political groups and organizations accept to be bound by the results of the ballot box, it is only natural to recognize their rights to articulate and propagate their programmes … And where this right is recognized and respected, there is no legal or material justification for any group to resort to armed conflict or any confrontation.”

The words of the Ambassador are correct. If the TPLF/EPRDF-led government revises the current electoral law which has been drafted, enacted and implemented ever since 1995 by EPRDF in the national and regional elections of 1995, 2000, 2001 and 2004, and if it makes sure that all peaceful political parties have an equal say in the making of the revised electoral law to a degree that is as good as that of TPLF/EPRDF or any other peaceful political party, why will any group go to the bush or resort to armed violence when it can advance its democratic political agenda peacefully under a fully democratic umbrella within a united Ethiopia?

The other article that I have been delighted to read is that of Asegedech who is not too harsh with the political opposition when she writes about the “… the irresponsible political groupings …”, and I also partly agree with her. I can understand the divide-and rule agenda of the TPLF/EPRDF-led government and its official promotion of the creation of some 70 ethnic-based parties, since that is a necessary prerequisite for TPLF/EPRDF to divide and rule the country in the absence of popular support.

However, I can never understand the elite that sheepishly agreed to implement TPLF’s divisive agenda and form dozens of ethnic political parties that can only advance, at best, a personal obsession and madness for power of the respective ethnic-based political leaders. An example is SEPDC where the leadership wants to hang on to regionalism when the gallant people of southern Ethiopia do, in fact, strongly condemn regionalism. Indeed, they do also fully realize that standing against regionalism does not at all imply that they do not want to strengthen their cultures which can thrive without any parasitic attachment to regionalism. An example of such a multi-cultural society is the USA with some 1000 different cultures where all citizens live and work together anywhere in the USA, the super power of today!

It is also apparent that even Dr. Beyene Petros, its Chairman, is quite uneasy with his association with SEPDC since his interviews and his seat in parliament today are associated only Amarach Hailoch, which, I thought was dead after UEDF last July, or otherwise long ago since all its institutional members outside SEPDC had either withered away, or they had withdrawn from that coalition so that it was entirely composed of those in SEPDC. Indeed, it is time for SEPDC to be a national party since that is what our southern compatriots want at this time ! Furthermore, the first Chairman of UEDF has a historic obligation to preach and practice unity in diversity before mid-2004 in order to be out of the club of the “irresponsible political groupings….”. The most ideal approach to such unity is to merge with an existing and credible multinational party, and Ethiopia has such a party today. Power belongs to the people, and that can be decided by them once the parties mobilize them to achieve political empowerment.

A second group that appears to suffer from hypocrisy is that group of ten foreign-based parties that make up UEDF; it is incomprehensible that these ten parties are led by such illustrious sons of Ethiopia as Engineer Kitaw Ejigu, Prof. Alemante, Mersha Yoseph and Fassika Belette, Seyoum Gelaye, Ujulu Tokon and Areagawi Berihe, among others. All these publicly profess unity and a united and democratic Ethiopia, but then why do they have ten separate parties which are not quite friendly to one another. If such an enlightened group cannot set an example of unity in diversity, who else can in today’s officially divided Ethiopia?

One group of Ethiopians that could have forged unity in this very critical hour would have been those we had childishly termed “ feudal” and “unprogressive” way back in the 1960s and 1970s, but those of us in the 21st century with heaps of certificates and diplomas appear to lack that type of national vision and national commitment. Geresu Duki, Abebe Aregay, Belay Zelleke, Amoraw Wubneh and plenty of others throughout Ethiopia had a unity of purpose and strategy, and they won, only to hand Ethiopia over to a generation that is far from committed or responsible. I challenge all those parties in the Diaspora to give me one reason that can suffice to establish that you can put your party well before the best interests and future of Ethiopia !

I have often wondered why they are ten, and not one, if their political agenda is based entirely on realizing a democratic and prosperous united Ethiopia. Can it be that each of these wants a small crown for itself, or some feudal fiefdom in Ethiopia, or do they really have any justification to stand as ten different parties when the only burning issue we have today is to unite and save a bleeding nation by putting all our resources together in the up-coming election in 2005 ? The insane division of the opposition in 2000 was, next to the highly biased electoral law and the EPRDF-led election management from top to bottom, the main reason for the continued success of EPRDF in further bleeding and destroying Ethiopia.

Clearly, the TPLF/EPRDF government has not forced those distinguished son of Ethiopia or enticed them in some fashion, as it has done with the ethnic-based party leaders here in Ethiopia, to form TEN PARTIES in different corners of the USA ! My hope is that they will forget this obsession for power, if that is their worry, and unite before mid-2004 and stop tearing each other apart instead of using all their resources in saving and building a united and democratic Ethiopia in alliance with the political parties in the Country. UEDF will then be sensibly organized and united to push an Ethiopian agenda with one and a united voice ! If you want to break apart, please come together today, form a meaningful relationship with a similarly united opposition in Ethiopia and break aprt again, if yopu wish after winning the elctions in 2005 ! Let Ethiopia Tikdem !

Have the elite in the Diaspora learnt any lessons at all from the failures and disastrous consequences of the in-fighting of the student movement of the 1960s and 1970s ? Let us never ever forget that it is those tragic failures of those student movements that have largely given rise to the disasters in today’s starving and bleeding Ethiopia ! If any of the Diaspora do not know that, please come over and visit the countryside, and not the bars in ADDIS ABABA WHICH IS WHERE MOST overseas visitors SPEND their TIME. As a member of a farming family, I see and live their difficult life almost every day !

Asegedech appears to tell of the “brighter” faces of the current government: private press, roads, higher school enrolment, EHRCO, businesses growing, construction increasing, etc…. One thing Asegedech has to realize is that most of those are built with borrowed funds from the West, and we are deeper in debt than at any other time in Ethiopian history with outcomes that do not al all compare to our international indebtedness. Further, the geopolitical environment to-day is one where the West is the most dominant block so that unless Meles plays the game, albeit in a pseudo-democratic way, his very survival is at stake! He has to show off a private press to his Western supporters; he has to also tolerate the Ethiopian Human Rights Council. However, let us not forget that he has put several members of the press in jail and he has a most repressive press law in the pipe-line, and he has also put Prof. Mesfin Wolder Maraim and Dr. Taye Wolde Semayat and several others behind bars, all without good cause.

As for the mushrooming business, the likes of Birhane Mewa are driven out under various pretexts: An alleged tax evasion of 17,000.00 Birr ( under US$2,000) as an excuse for Birhane Mewa who was a dynamic and challenging business leader; rent-seeking for several promising businessmen behind bars over the last three years without any valid court hearing right to this day; taxation of business expenses for some private banks with the hope that they will go bankrupt and be gone; foreclosure of several businesses; … the list long, Asegedech. On the other hand, look at TPLF’s EFFORT with some 3,000,000,000 Birr ( 3 Billion Birr) debt from the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia and foreclosure does not apply to it. Is this corruption ?

As for the high school enrolment, does Asegedech have any relatives in the countryside or in any poor government school even in Addis Ababa ? An 8th- grader cannot even write his/her name properly these days, and, yet, there is so much show in terms of higher school enrolment. Indeed, I have met a young man who has graduated from Addis Ababa University with Distinction some 3 years back, but he can hardly write a sentence correctly, and thousands, like him, remain unemployed every year !

That is the nature and quality of education under the current government. Suppose we raise school enrolment to 100% in this manner, will that change the political, social and economic situation in Ethiopia, as Asegedech appears to think ? Definitely not ! If that were the case, the Soviet Union wound have democratized and developed significantly in the 1950s! Many countries in Africa ( Ghana, South Africa, Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, etc…) have changed dramatically over the last ten years without attaining significantly higher levels of school enrolment, and the principal motive force, in each case, was the commitment of the respective governments to free and fair elections. This is the crucial element that is lacking in Ethiopia!

As for the dams, how come there is so much poverty and starvation if the dams are there ? The current estimate of famine victims is 7,000,000 , and this is a total shame for a regime that has been ruling a potentially rich nation endowed with several rivers and lakes and plenty of rainfall every year, for 12 solid years. The number of official famine victims last year was 14, 3000,000, and the reduction this year is largely because nature has been generous with Ethiopia, and not due to the performance of an accountable, transparent and responsible government.

I was recently out in Bahir Dar, and I had then driven to Chis Abay to visit the TISSAT FALLS, as many call it. First, the falls are gone, and that is how much the government respects its people and its natural resources. As a result, tourism is dying in that area, and “ who cares ? “ is what PM Meles appears to say so long as some selected villages elsewhere in the country are doing alright ! That is sheer arrogance arising from too much power vested in a person that has neither foresight nor popular support.

On the way to Chis Abay is a large river which has waters flowing gracefully some 60 centimeters below the level of the surrounding flat fields. Some 30 meters from this idle river, I noticed that a big hole had been dug, and the residents told me that its was done under the orders of local government in order to store water when the rains come in. What is strange is that the great river itself had all the water that was needed for irrigation, but a corrupt and inept government had to brag about so may holes dug in this and that area to harvest rainwater without any concern at all for the practice of irrigation, and the uses of the river for that purpose; dams built by Derg is southern Ethiopia are out of use for lack of repair, according to Ethiopian Television. This, Assegedech, is what the government typically does for its irrigation propaganda ! It is all a stupid show designed to appease the West and folks in the Diaspora ! The people in the country do no mater at all !

I am also concerned by Asegedech’s attitude that land reform is unnecessary. Does Asegedech know about the economic history of Japan since 1868 ? Land belonged to the nobility and up to 75% of the produce went to them, and up came the Meiji restoration in 1868 and land went to the tiller. Rice production went up, and people had a choice of employment so that instead of splitting a small plot still further, they sold or leased their plots and went to work in business and industry, and before long, Japan was a net exporter in raw materials as well, and a strong industrial power in the Far East. The principal and all other actors there were nationalists fully committed to a modern Japan !

Today’s Ethiopian farmer has an average of 5 to 6 children and only a few years down the road, the small family plot will be further sub-divided into still smaller plots so that the cycle of poverty will, indeed, have full insurance to survive and reign in Ethiopia if the farmer cannot sell his land and move out to other areas of employment, thanks to TPLF/EPRDF, and this is only the economic aspect.

There is also the political aspect where the ruling party today gives land or denies land, as and when the attitude of the farmer towards EPRDF is perceived to have changed. If the farmer is pro-EPRDF, he has land, and good land at that, but if he chooses to join an opposition party, the farmer will be thrown out of his land altogether, or otherwise given s small barren plot, and the local officials have then often told such a farmer “ Let your party give you land !”. Still another measure by the government is cook up allegations like “you have not paid for fertilizers and seeds, or you have not paid taxes on time.” and then the farmer, his family and livestock are all thrown into the Kebele jail, and this is so different from life in Washington, D.C with its ten opposition parties who claim to stand for such poor farmers as well !

Hence, land is used as a political tool, against the people’s will, and when such oppression reaches a level of intolerance, then peace and stability are bound to break down. All that Asegedech has to do is to go to the countryside or simply surf through the internet, and she will have some idea regarding why land is so important to the perpetuation of the power monopoly of the ruling party, which she, inadvertently, appears to support.

Whereas I disagree with her list of good things in 21st century Ethiopia, let me conclude by agreeing with Asegedech’s next two paragraphs:

“The real test will happen if all (political) participants agree upon the rules towards the general election of next year. Incorporating independent commission members in the Election Board, electing an independent commissioner/ chair for the Election Board, and having an open and free state media will convince many of us that the current government is truly committed to democracy. The short and long term outcome for the ruling party will be respect and the building of trust. The country will be more stable, and opposition parties will be more mature and constructive. These big results can be achieved by a relatively simple move of the government to institute the above-mentioned changes.
A government under such unique historical period of transformation has the responsibility to pave the way for a change. The degree of responsibility of the government in preserving the unity of the country, the well being of its people and its future development, will depend on whether the government of Prime Minister Meles makes the process of free democratic election a reality in Ethiopia. When PM Meles agrees that fundamental decisions that change the nature of the country should be handled in a non-partisan manner, if and when he makes sure that the concern of mature political forces that have different view from his party are addressed, then he can assuredly claim that he has done his level best to promote the interest of his country. It is this simple, and yet crucial element that I ask the Prime Minister to consider in the coming few months."

Asegedech, like Ambassador Tesfaye, has put it all beautifully, and all that I ask of PM Meles is to quickly revise the electoral law and the National Election Board with the full participation of all peaceful political parties, open up all public mass media and Radio Fana equitably to all, provide them with as much financial and material support for the elections as it gives to EPRDF and its allies, and ensure that all Ethiopians are absolutely free to listen to whichever party they choose, and then make their choice on election day. It can be done if PM Meles stands for Ethiopia ! This is the litmus test!

My other appeal goes to the political opposition: Medhin, EDU, AEUP and UDEP are multinational parties currently legally operating in Ethiopia. All that I ask of these 4 is to unite before mid-2004 with full recognition of the fact that their primary mission is to enhance democratic representation so that all that none of them has a right to ask for an undue role that is not consistent with their constituency during any merger discussion. Any subsequent dreams for power should be left to the total membership of a united and democratic party.

To UEDF, my appeal for internal democracy still stands, since it is currently far from internally democratic, and that requires UEDF to revise its Constitution which gives very little role to the parties in Ethiopia and too much power to those in the Diaspora. Indeed, this practices negates all that UEDF claims to stand for: internal democracy and good governance. If it cannot practice democracy and good governance internally, it has no logical or moral basis for criticizing others, including the ruling party. Dr. Merera, the current Chairman of UEDF, has the sacred duty of realizing harmony among all members of UEDF as soon as possible, before mid-2004, by addressing all genuine concerns of all member parties.

My last and most important appeal goes to the Diaspora and all other Ethiopians: let us stop being too excited about groups or parties without first reading their Constitutions and political programs. Such precaution and critical evaluation will serve the best of interests of a united, progressive and democratic Ethiopia for all Ethiopians; it will also save all of us from further disappointment, and alert all those who may want to take short-cuts to personal glory that the public and Ethiopia won’t have such selfish designs any more !

Lastly, my plea goes to those 1000 persons that attended UEDF. Please push/force those ten parties in the Diaspora to merge into one strong party before mid-2004, and match your euphoria of that day with such tangible service since ten small and divided parties in the Diaspora are not good for Ethiopia, and, if left as they are, they are bound to come home, if any such opportunity arises by some miracle, with their divided agendas, and that cannot be a wholesome affair as we have all seen in the student movement in the 1960s and 1970s. Such a merger will surely set a strong signal to those in Ethiopia, and the opposition will then be in a strong position to democratize Ethiopia and rejoin the club of respectable nations. If all supporters in the Diaspora pull together, a united opposition is possible before mid-2004. If we fail in this, we may end up in making our own future even darker !

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