Who provoked violence, why, and what should be done?

By Alemayehu Mekonen
November 7, 2005

I have been reading several statements from the US, the European Union and Ambassadors of donor countries with dismay. Let me try to point out some of the issues which I think are relevant.

1. Who provoked the violence in Ethiopia? EPRDF accuses CUD leaders for the violence. That should mean that CUD leaders have called for violence. But it is not true. Since EPRDF has all the means to accuse, arrest and kill people it will not be surprising if it accuses CUD leaders for provoking the violence. What surprises me is that western diplomats too are somehow echoing the accusations of EPRDF. I said this because in many of the statements we find phrases that blame the government and the opposition equally for the violence.

   CUD had earlier called for a peaceful demonstration that included a call for motorists to honk their horns between 8:00 and 8:30AM in the morning on Oct. 31st to Nov. 2, 2005. The motorists did honk their hirns but the army stopped and arrested most of them. It also took away licenses of 30 taxi drivers. The government announced this in the evening and the next day when the motorists were again demonstrating peacefully the special Agazi army started attacking them by bringing them out of their cars and beating them cruelly. The people who were watching the scene could not stand the way the motorists were treated and started throwing stones at the soldiers. The soldiers responded with live ammunition. The violence started immediately.

   We can compare the situation on Monday with that of Tuesday. On Monday there was no violence because the army was not beating the motorists. They were taking away their licenses but the public tolerated that one. However, on Tuesday the government ordered the army to beat the motorists and hence it provoked the violence.

2. Why did the government provoke the violence? The reason was that they wanted to arrest the political leaders and they wanted to humiliate them by beating and mistreating them so that people lose confidence in them. Moreover, they wanted to ban the free press which was counteracting the interhamwe lectures that the government has been continuously giving to the public. Those banned free press have maintained unity among the various ethnic and religious groups through out the 14 years of government propaganda on ethnic hatred. The government wants to divide and rule the people by developing mistrust in the various groups. The free press has been counteracting this and the government has always been looking for excuses to ban them. Moreover, the unity among the CUD supporters after resolving the internal problems caused frustration to the government who had relied on the internal problems and divisions among supporters of CUD.

   Besides, the government wanted to provoke the violence to use it as an excuse to kill some people and thereby to scare the population ahead of a peaceful protest planned by CUD. Moreover, they wanted to round up CUD supporters and take them to a malaria infested location so that they will not participate in the upcoming peaceful demonstration and that either they will die from the malaria they get in detention place. These people did not do anything but the government could have been tipped by its security system that they were supporters of CUD. Supporting a party by itself is a crime here. Would the west accept that?

3. What is the consequence of the reluctance of the west to condemn the Ethiopian government? I think the Ethiopian people relied on the west when they decided to participate in the elections. People thought that if the government does not respect human rights and if it rigs the votes then the west will take punitive measures. The people hopped that because of the pressure from the west the government will be forced to exercise democracy. One can witness the peaceful demonstration held on May 8, 2005 in Addis Ababa. CUD organized a successful peaceful demonstration of about 3 Million people with no violence. Then you may ask why the people turned violent later on? The reason is that people were angered by the behavior of the government immediately after May 15, 2005 and the reluctance of the west to pressurize the government. When they realized that the west did not help them they lost hope and became frustrated. They then started to be violent. Patience is the result of hope while violence is the result frustration.

4. Why would the west be reluctant to condemn the Ethiopian government? This could be because they want the government to stay in power as Ethiopia is an ally of the west in fighting international terrorism. However, the misunderstanding here is that it is not the EPRDF government but the Ethiopian people that are allies of the west in fighting international terrorism. A misconception here is that some think the EPRDF security system was good and hence we don’t have problems related to terrorism in Ethiopia. However, the reality is that in fact it is under EPRDF that we witnessed several incidences of terrorism. In addition to the assassination attempt made on the Egyptian president some years ago and the hijacking and subsequent crushing of the Ethiopian airlines, several bombings took place under the rule of EPRDF. The previous government did not have any of those problems. So, the west should consider the Ethiopian people as an ally in fighting terrorism, not EPRDF.

   Another reason could be the fact that the previous government was a socialist one and EPRDF managed to get rid of it. If the west gives credit to EPRDF for fighting communism I think it would be a mistake. I say this because both EPRDF and Derg regime were both communists for a long time and the time when they changed to free economy was almost the same. For EPRDF, it was easier to condemn socialism because it did not practice it as a government. When EPRDF took power it tried to pretend to be the offspring of the west. The west as well thought that they had supported a rebel group and had managed to set a democratic government. They might have the feeling that they have invested in the current government and that they have to protect it. EPRDF had to act like a democrat to get support from the west. Now its true picture has come out clearly. Derg massacred people after its cadres became targets of the armed wing of the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRP). Now we are witnessing something worse.

5. What are the consequences of western reluctance and what should be done? I think as people lose hope from the west they start looking for other means of struggle. One of these is armed struggle. This will jeopardize our weak economy but as you know no body stops fighting because they are poor. In fact poverty is one reason for violence. In addition to break out of civil war in Ethiopia one could also expect a resentment against western citizens as their government failed to live up to its promises. One may ridicule this but it is possible. International terrorists may sniff for such conditions and may think it is the right time for them to infiltrate. By then, EPRDF will not be able to stop them. In addition to the several records of terrorist attacks in Ethiopia and the fact that even countries with the tightest security systems have not been able to fully control terrorists, it will not be wise to rely on EPRDF’s security system. I think the best thing will be to be in good terms with the people. The people are the ones that can check the movements of the terrorists and if people are desperate and develop resentment they may not care about the damages inflicted by terrorists and in fact at times we may find them cooperating. EPRDF will be very happy to see one or more of those incidences so that it gets an additional job to stay in power.

So, I suggest that the west openly criticizes the government and threaten a possible economic sanction unless it creates harmony with the people. The CUD leaders should not be urged not to incite violence because they never did that. They have been trying their best to avoid violence. They should be credited for that. That will at least cool down the people that are angered by the reluctance of the west. The government must apologize for what it did. The independent enquiry should be set up by an independent body and not by the government because the Prime Minister is in direct command of the army operating in Addis Ababa. He is the one to be charged. He can not be requested to set an independent investigation. As you all know, even repeated calls for such an investigation on the June 8 massacre did not materialize. So, empty promises will never satisfy the population. It will lead to violence.

The government is trying to fabricate Interhamwe and unless the west takes immediate action EPRDF will succeed in implementing Interhamwe in Ethiopia. It will not help if the west sends condolences later when it can stop it now.

The government should respect the people’s votes. There should be an independent election board and a re-election should be held in all the contested 299 seats. Otherwise, we will be back once again in to a war that will frustrate the west that had hoped for democracy to prevail in Ethiopia. The time to stop it from happening is now.

Yours faithfully,

Alemayehu Mekonen Email: alemayehumek@yahoo.com Addis Ababa Ethiopia