The rising fear of a war of proxies

Demonstrators in Mogadishu shouted anti-Ethiopian and anti-U.S. slogans as they marched in the capital, accompanied by dozens of Islamic militiamen and trucks mounted with heavy weapons, AP reported. Radical Islamic militia, however, later gunned down two people during a rare demonstration against the rulers of Mogadishu. "We don't want Islamic movements!" the protesters shouted before fleeing the gunfire, the Banabir radio station reported. (Photo: BBC)
The crisis in Somalia drags on. Outsiders can help - or hinder

IT IS only a month since Islamist militias, operating under an umbrella calling itself the Council of Islamic Courts, crushed a clutch of CIA-backed warlords to take control of most of Mogadishu, Somalia's ravaged capital. A lot has changed since then. Early hope among Somalia-watchers has fast given way, once again, to fear. Both the Islamists and the feeble, internationally recognised transitional government, ensconced to the west in the dusty town of Baidoa, have become more strident. Other nearby countries, particularly Ethiopia, have become more meddlesome. A proxy war is brewing that could mess up the entire region.

The Islamists are on the front foot. They have surged out of Mogadishu, ignoring a flimsy ceasefire they signed last month with the transitional government, seizing one district after another and shredding the few who dared engage them in battle. Moderate Islamists appear to have been shoved aside by radicals keen to set up a conservative Islamist state, preferably one that takes in the Somali-inhabited swathes of neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia.

It is still too soon to talk of a new Taliban, but there has been a slide into puritan thuggery recently, epitomised by the flogging with electric cables of a pop group, the Mogadishu Stars, for playing at a wedding. Statements of intent are becoming bolder and uglier. A Mogadishu cleric openly insists that anyone not praying five times a day should be put to death.

The main worry, for outsiders at least, is terrorism. No one knows how many al-Qaeda people, if any, are hiding in Mogadishu. Osama bin Laden apparently thinks there are a few; he recently called for Somalia to become a new battleground against America. That was a miscalculation. The radicals, who lean more towards the Muslim Brotherhood and Somali nationalism than the global jihad of al-Qaeda, distanced themselves from the statement and from Mr bin Laden. Still, the window of opportunity for making Mogadishu a bit safer for foreigners (including aid agencies) seems already to have closed. Arab fighters have been filmed riding around Mogadishu in armoured Jeeps.

The transitional government has not helped by likening one of the top Islamist leaders, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, to Mr bin Laden. Moreover, to the dismay of many Somalis, it has turned to Ethiopia, which most Somalis loathe, to guarantee its security. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops may already have entered Somalia from the west. Baidoa's airstrip is being widened to take Ethiopian military aircraft.

For the moment, the transitional government is unwilling to share power with the Islamists. In truth, there is not much to share. The parliament meets in an abandoned warehouse at the edge of Baidoa. It is a sorry looking place: a few chairs, a strip light, some banners on the wall advertising mobile-phone operators and money-lenders, and an orchestra in bright green outfits which now and again belts out old Italian marching tunes.

The United Nations, the European Union and assorted governments, including those of Italy, Britain and Sweden, pay for the parliament and the largely imaginary institutions around it. The United States has not been much of a supporter, though some in Baidoa think that might change if they stood up to the Islamists. A handful of foreign advisers and diplomats turn up at parliamentary sessions. Little gets said, even less decided. The main drama, aside from the orchestra, is the arrival of the president, Abdullahi Yusuf. His presidential guard is better turned out than the buildings it is meant to protect. Its desert camouflage uniforms are new, maybe a gift from Ethiopia, as are some AK-47s and heavy machine-guns.

Outsiders could tip the balance towards war or peace. America, with a strong military and intelligence presence in Djibouti, will find it hard to tolerate an Islamist regime in Somalia headed by Mr Aweys or his friends, some of whom, it says, helped al-Qaeda in the past.

Ethiopia is even more allergic to the Islamists. It is worried about security on its borders and the potential radicalisation of its own Muslims. It may also see a fight in Somalia as a useful distraction from unrest at home. Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, denies his country has troops inside Somalia and instead, without showing any evidence, accuses Mr Aweys of having planted bombs in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, earlier this year.

Eritrea is a bit player, but a crafty one. It continues to ship arms to the Islamists in the hope of pulling Ethiopian troops away from its own disputed border. Mr Yusuf, Somalia's hapless president, is keen to lift an international arms embargo and bring in peacekeepers. The African Union (AU) backs him, but letting in foreign troops, in the first instance from Sudan and Uganda, may stir conflict as much as resolve it. Instead, the UN has tentatively suggested training up the Somali army and police.

There is still a chance that peace may prevail. Ordinary Somalis are exhausted by years of fighting; no government has ruled the whole of Somalia in peace since the coup against its long-time leader, Siad Barre, in 1991. The country is in bits. Puntland, to the north-east, is autonomous. Somaliland, to the north, has a functioning government that would love to secede, an idea that both the Islamists and Mr Yusuf's transitional government reject but which the AU now seems to back.

America would like to make up for its miscalculation in backing the warlords by working more closely with international bodies and the AU. Mogadishu's powerful businessmen, who backed the Islamists out of commercial self-interest rather than piety, could act as a brake on warmongers and overzealous Islamist enforcers.

The solution is probably power-sharing between the Islamists and the transitional government. That means the two sides sitting down together, as they promised to do later this month. The Islamists will have to be offered a lot of power. In return, they would have to agree to share revenue from Mogadishu's airports and port. Diplomats who have met Mr Aweys say that he is open to a bargain.

(Source: The Economist: July 13, 2006)

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