Fears raise over Horn of African war
By Xan Rice, East African Correspondent (The Guardian)
July 21, 2006
Fears of war in the Horn of Africa grew sharply yesterday after Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia to "protect" its neighbour's fragile government against an advancing Islamist militia.
Dozens of Ethiopian military trucks and armoured vehicles were seen closing in on Baidoa, the seat of Somalia's interim government, which has no army of its own. Journalists reported seeing hundreds of Ethiopian troops patrolling the town yesterday.
The move appeared to be a direct challenge to the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, which controls the capital Mogadishu and much of the south. On Wednesday, its fighters advanced to the town of Buurhabaka, 40 miles from Baidoa. The military movements came as both sides stepped up their verbal battle.
While denying the widely reported incursion, an Ethiopian government spokesman vowed to crush any attempt to topple President Abdullahi Yusuf's secular interim government, which enjoys close ties with Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, the Islamists' deputy head of security, warned that his fighters were ready to take on the foreign troops. "God willing, we will remove the Ethiopians in our country and wage a jihadi war against them."
The direct involvement of Ethiopia, which has been repeatedly accused of crossing into Somalia in recent weeks, represents a dangerous turn of events.
Tensions within Somalia were already strained by the on-off talks between the weak government, which has no control outside Baidoa, and the Islamists, who defeated a coalition of US-backed warlords in Mogadishu on June 5 and have steadily spread their influence across the country.
Representatives of the two parties met in Khartoum last month and agreed to recognise each other, even if their differences remained wide. The government wants an arms embargo lifted and regional peacekeepers deployed. The Islamists, who want to impose some form of sharia law, are vehemently opposed to foreign troops - as are many Somalis, particularly in Mogadishu.
But a second meeting planned for last weekend was boycotted by the government after it accused the Islamists of breaking a ceasefire agreement by fighting a bloody three-day battle to rout the last remaining warlord in Mogadishu.
Relations appeared to break down completely on Wednesday when the prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, accused the militia of plotting to overthrow the government by force.
His comments, which were denied by the Islamists, raised immediate alarms in Addis Ababa, and are likely to have prompted the incursion.
The invasion is not without precedent: Ethiopia twice crossed into Somalia, in 1993 and 1996, to crush attempts by Islamists to establish control.
Ethiopian troops roll into central Somalia: AP
MOGADISHU, Somalia (Jul 20) -- Ethiopian troops in armoured vehicles rolled into the central Somali town of Baidoa Thursday and set up a camp near the home of the interim president, residents said, less than a day after Islamic militants reached the outskirts of the base of a UN-backed, but largely powerless government.
A spokesman for the Ethiopian government had said that his country would protect Somalia's transitional government from attack by Islamic militias who control much of southern Somalia. Numerous witnesses told The Associated Press that Ethiopian soldiers arrived Thursday afternoon in Baidoa, 240 kilometres northwest of Mogadishu and about 150 kilometres east of the Ethiopian border.
The Ethiopians smiled and waved to residents as they drove into Baidoa. They kept off the streets after setting up a camp near the transitional president's home in Baidoa, residents said.
One resident, speaking on anonymity because of fears of reprisals, said people were being kept off the roads leading to the building.
Dozens of Ethiopian troops, including those in armoured vehicles, crossed into Somalia at the border town of Dolow on Thursday morning. Some drove on to Baidoa while others set up rear bases near settlements at the frontier, said Shukri Abdi-rahman, a Dolow resident.
Ethiopian's defence, foreign and information ministries spokesmen repeatedly denied Thursday that their troops had crossed into Somalia.
Ismail Hurreh, one of Somalia's several deputy prime ministers, dismissed reports that Ethiopian troops were deployed in Baidoa and refused further comment.
But late Wednesday, Ethiopia's Minister of Information Berhan Hailu told the AP that his government would intervene to prop up Somalia's transitional government, which has no effective military of its own and only controls the town of Baidoa.
"We have the responsibility to defend the border and the Somali government. We will crush them," Berhan said.
By moving troops into Mogadishu, Ethiopia could help create enough breathing space for peace talks planned Saturday to move forward. Or it could set the stage for a military confrontation between the better armed, better trained Ethiopians and the Islamic fighters.
Somalia invaded Ethiopia in 1978 in an attempt to grab land occupied by ethnic Somalis. Since then, Ethiopia has attempted to influence Somali politics to prevent another invasion. Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia in 1993 and 1996 to crush Islamic militants attempting to establish a religious government.
Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is allied with Ethiopia and has asked for its support. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops have been spotted along the countries' border in recent weeks, which the Islamic militia has repeatedly denounced.
Militia loyal to Supreme Islamic Courts Union reached within 35 kilometres of Baidoa on Wednesday, prompting the government to go on high alert in anticipation of an attack. The militia was expected to pull back on Thursday, court officials said.
The Supreme Islamic Courts Council militia seized Mogadishu and most of the rest of southern Somalia last month and has shown signs of planning to install strict religious rule, sparking fears it was a Taliban-style regime. The U.S. has accused the militia of links to al-Qaida that include sheltering suspects in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Islamists vow holy war
Meanwhile, Somalia's Islamists vowed a "holy war" on Thursday against Ethiopian troops crossing into the Horn of Africa nation, while Addis Ababa threatened to "crush" any attack on the interim government it supports, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The aggressive rhetoric -- combined with this week's military moves on both sides -- have heightened fears of a new war in Somalia, plagued by violence and without central rule since the 1991 ouster of a military dictator.
"The risk of full scale war increases by the day," said John Prendergast, of the International Crisis Group think-tank.
Islamists took the capital Mogadishu from U.S.-backed warlords last month and are threatening the authority of a transitional administration formed in Kenya in 2004 and intended to steer the nation from anarchy to peace.
Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, a senior Islamist in charge of defense, said around 20 military vehicles from Ethiopia had crossed into Somalia at Dollow on Wednesday.
That added to previous Islamist accusations Ethiopia was pouring in troops to support Somalia's government against them.
"God willing, we will remove the Ethiopians in our country and wage a jihadi war against them," he told reporters.
Analysts believe Addis Ababa has sent up to 5,000 troops into Somalia, and is massing more on the border, to deter any more Islamist advances.
The regional power, Ethiopia backs the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf, which is based in the provincial town of Baidoa because it lacks the strength to move to Mogadishu.
Addis Ababa termed the jihad call "foolish and cheap propaganda" aimed at winning support from Muslim states.
"The Islamists' agenda is to topple the legally constituted Federal Transitional Government of Somalia and destabilise Ethiopia," added Information Ministry spokesman Zemedhun Tekle.
Ethiopia denied incursions into Somalia but threatened to "crush" any Islamist bid to take Baidoa or cross the border.
STALLED TALKS
Analysts and Somali sources say the interim government has little military strength in its own right, beyond a small force loyal to Yusuf, which was boosted by the recent arrival in Baidoa of several hundred fighters from defeated warlords.
In a war, the government would rely on Ethiopian support.
"Yusuf is using the Ethiopians as a threat. He doesn't really want a battle -- yet," said one Somalia expert.
"The Islamists have vastly superior military capacity at the moment, especially with the help they're getting from Eritrea."
Nominally Christian-led Ethiopia, which condemns the Islamist leaders as "terrorists," is fearful of having a hardline Muslim state on its doorstep.
It is also anxious about possible Islamist aspirations to establish a "Greater Somalia" which would incorporate Ethiopia's southeastern Ogaden region inhabited by ethnic Somalis.
Ethiopia sounded the alarm after Islamist militia moved from Mogadishu to Buur Hakaba -- just 60 km (37 miles) from Baidoa -- on Wednesday. The Islamists returned in the evening, saying they went to collect 150 soldiers switching sides from Yusuf's force.
The commander of those soldiers said they were disgruntled at lack of pay. "We met him (Yusuf) on Sunday and told him we will be leaving since his government failed to honor its promises," Garad Fiidow Gabow told Reuters in Mogadishu at a former government building where his troops were resting.
The soldiers carried new AK-47 rifles.
Interim government spokesman Abdirahman Dinari, however, said soldiers had left due to indiscipline.
Islamist defense chief Robow said he could have gone on to Baidoa, but drew back to avoid confrontation and harming Arab-League brokered talks with the government.
The government pulled out of the last round, saying the Islamists broke an accord to stop military advances.
(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne in Nairobi)
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July 21, 2006
Fears of war in the Horn of Africa grew sharply yesterday after Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia to "protect" its neighbour's fragile government against an advancing Islamist militia.
Dozens of Ethiopian military trucks and armoured vehicles were seen closing in on Baidoa, the seat of Somalia's interim government, which has no army of its own. Journalists reported seeing hundreds of Ethiopian troops patrolling the town yesterday.
The move appeared to be a direct challenge to the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, which controls the capital Mogadishu and much of the south. On Wednesday, its fighters advanced to the town of Buurhabaka, 40 miles from Baidoa. The military movements came as both sides stepped up their verbal battle.
While denying the widely reported incursion, an Ethiopian government spokesman vowed to crush any attempt to topple President Abdullahi Yusuf's secular interim government, which enjoys close ties with Addis Ababa.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, the Islamists' deputy head of security, warned that his fighters were ready to take on the foreign troops. "God willing, we will remove the Ethiopians in our country and wage a jihadi war against them."
The direct involvement of Ethiopia, which has been repeatedly accused of crossing into Somalia in recent weeks, represents a dangerous turn of events.
Tensions within Somalia were already strained by the on-off talks between the weak government, which has no control outside Baidoa, and the Islamists, who defeated a coalition of US-backed warlords in Mogadishu on June 5 and have steadily spread their influence across the country.
Representatives of the two parties met in Khartoum last month and agreed to recognise each other, even if their differences remained wide. The government wants an arms embargo lifted and regional peacekeepers deployed. The Islamists, who want to impose some form of sharia law, are vehemently opposed to foreign troops - as are many Somalis, particularly in Mogadishu.
Relations appeared to break down completely on Wednesday when the prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, accused the militia of plotting to overthrow the government by force.
His comments, which were denied by the Islamists, raised immediate alarms in Addis Ababa, and are likely to have prompted the incursion.
The invasion is not without precedent: Ethiopia twice crossed into Somalia, in 1993 and 1996, to crush attempts by Islamists to establish control.
Ethiopian troops roll into central Somalia: AP
MOGADISHU, Somalia (Jul 20) -- Ethiopian troops in armoured vehicles rolled into the central Somali town of Baidoa Thursday and set up a camp near the home of the interim president, residents said, less than a day after Islamic militants reached the outskirts of the base of a UN-backed, but largely powerless government.
A spokesman for the Ethiopian government had said that his country would protect Somalia's transitional government from attack by Islamic militias who control much of southern Somalia. Numerous witnesses told The Associated Press that Ethiopian soldiers arrived Thursday afternoon in Baidoa, 240 kilometres northwest of Mogadishu and about 150 kilometres east of the Ethiopian border.
The Ethiopians smiled and waved to residents as they drove into Baidoa. They kept off the streets after setting up a camp near the transitional president's home in Baidoa, residents said.
One resident, speaking on anonymity because of fears of reprisals, said people were being kept off the roads leading to the building.
Dozens of Ethiopian troops, including those in armoured vehicles, crossed into Somalia at the border town of Dolow on Thursday morning. Some drove on to Baidoa while others set up rear bases near settlements at the frontier, said Shukri Abdi-rahman, a Dolow resident.
Ethiopian's defence, foreign and information ministries spokesmen repeatedly denied Thursday that their troops had crossed into Somalia.
Ismail Hurreh, one of Somalia's several deputy prime ministers, dismissed reports that Ethiopian troops were deployed in Baidoa and refused further comment.
But late Wednesday, Ethiopia's Minister of Information Berhan Hailu told the AP that his government would intervene to prop up Somalia's transitional government, which has no effective military of its own and only controls the town of Baidoa.
"We have the responsibility to defend the border and the Somali government. We will crush them," Berhan said.
By moving troops into Mogadishu, Ethiopia could help create enough breathing space for peace talks planned Saturday to move forward. Or it could set the stage for a military confrontation between the better armed, better trained Ethiopians and the Islamic fighters.
Somalia invaded Ethiopia in 1978 in an attempt to grab land occupied by ethnic Somalis. Since then, Ethiopia has attempted to influence Somali politics to prevent another invasion. Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia in 1993 and 1996 to crush Islamic militants attempting to establish a religious government.
Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is allied with Ethiopia and has asked for its support. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops have been spotted along the countries' border in recent weeks, which the Islamic militia has repeatedly denounced.
Militia loyal to Supreme Islamic Courts Union reached within 35 kilometres of Baidoa on Wednesday, prompting the government to go on high alert in anticipation of an attack. The militia was expected to pull back on Thursday, court officials said.
The Supreme Islamic Courts Council militia seized Mogadishu and most of the rest of southern Somalia last month and has shown signs of planning to install strict religious rule, sparking fears it was a Taliban-style regime. The U.S. has accused the militia of links to al-Qaida that include sheltering suspects in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Islamists vow holy war
Meanwhile, Somalia's Islamists vowed a "holy war" on Thursday against Ethiopian troops crossing into the Horn of Africa nation, while Addis Ababa threatened to "crush" any attack on the interim government it supports, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The aggressive rhetoric -- combined with this week's military moves on both sides -- have heightened fears of a new war in Somalia, plagued by violence and without central rule since the 1991 ouster of a military dictator.
"The risk of full scale war increases by the day," said John Prendergast, of the International Crisis Group think-tank.
Islamists took the capital Mogadishu from U.S.-backed warlords last month and are threatening the authority of a transitional administration formed in Kenya in 2004 and intended to steer the nation from anarchy to peace.
Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, a senior Islamist in charge of defense, said around 20 military vehicles from Ethiopia had crossed into Somalia at Dollow on Wednesday.
That added to previous Islamist accusations Ethiopia was pouring in troops to support Somalia's government against them.
"God willing, we will remove the Ethiopians in our country and wage a jihadi war against them," he told reporters.
Analysts believe Addis Ababa has sent up to 5,000 troops into Somalia, and is massing more on the border, to deter any more Islamist advances.
The regional power, Ethiopia backs the interim government of President Abdullahi Yusuf, which is based in the provincial town of Baidoa because it lacks the strength to move to Mogadishu.
Addis Ababa termed the jihad call "foolish and cheap propaganda" aimed at winning support from Muslim states.
"The Islamists' agenda is to topple the legally constituted Federal Transitional Government of Somalia and destabilise Ethiopia," added Information Ministry spokesman Zemedhun Tekle.
Ethiopia denied incursions into Somalia but threatened to "crush" any Islamist bid to take Baidoa or cross the border.
STALLED TALKS
Analysts and Somali sources say the interim government has little military strength in its own right, beyond a small force loyal to Yusuf, which was boosted by the recent arrival in Baidoa of several hundred fighters from defeated warlords.
In a war, the government would rely on Ethiopian support.
"Yusuf is using the Ethiopians as a threat. He doesn't really want a battle -- yet," said one Somalia expert.
"The Islamists have vastly superior military capacity at the moment, especially with the help they're getting from Eritrea."
Nominally Christian-led Ethiopia, which condemns the Islamist leaders as "terrorists," is fearful of having a hardline Muslim state on its doorstep.
It is also anxious about possible Islamist aspirations to establish a "Greater Somalia" which would incorporate Ethiopia's southeastern Ogaden region inhabited by ethnic Somalis.
Ethiopia sounded the alarm after Islamist militia moved from Mogadishu to Buur Hakaba -- just 60 km (37 miles) from Baidoa -- on Wednesday. The Islamists returned in the evening, saying they went to collect 150 soldiers switching sides from Yusuf's force.
The commander of those soldiers said they were disgruntled at lack of pay. "We met him (Yusuf) on Sunday and told him we will be leaving since his government failed to honor its promises," Garad Fiidow Gabow told Reuters in Mogadishu at a former government building where his troops were resting.
The soldiers carried new AK-47 rifles.
Interim government spokesman Abdirahman Dinari, however, said soldiers had left due to indiscipline.
Islamist defense chief Robow said he could have gone on to Baidoa, but drew back to avoid confrontation and harming Arab-League brokered talks with the government.
The government pulled out of the last round, saying the Islamists broke an accord to stop military advances.
(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne in Nairobi)
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