A Note on the Ethiopian economy

Every year, EPRDF officials make fantastic claims regarding the performance of the Ethiopian economy. These claims are often misleading and not supported by data from reliable and neutral institutions such as the IMF and World Bank.

Below is a sampling of facts that illustrate the real development situation in Ethiopia and of the level of progress over the last fifteen years of rule by the EPRDF:

  1. Over the last fourteen years, there has been almost no change in the level of poverty in Ethiopia.1
  2. Key economic indicators such as income per capita and crop yields have shown little change over the last fourteen years – income per capita has risen at a mere 1.1% per annum, and crop yields 0.4% per annum.2

  3. The population dependent on food aid varies from five million in good years, to up to thirteen million, as in the case of the last drought in 2002/2003.
  4. Climate change, deforestation, and environmental degradation have contributed to an increase in the frequency of drought.
  5. The population is rising around 2-3% per year, and is estimated to hit 120 million in twenty years.
  6. Land holdings have halved since the 1960’s, from 0.4 to 0.2 hectares per capita.
  7. Ethiopia’s Human Development Index (HDI) increased 18% from 1990 to 2003, an average of just over 1% annually. Ethiopia is ranked 170th out of 177 countries in HDI.3

    This is the story over the last fifteen years. Perhaps the next few years will be better. Hope springs eternal.

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    (1) See page iii in Ethiopia - Well-Being and Poverty in Ethiopia, World Bank, 2005 (http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDS_IBank_Servlet?pcont=details&eid=000160016_20050920094758)
    (2) See “Ethiopia – Scaling Up”, Finance and Development, Vol. 42 No.3, IMF, September 2005, (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2005/09/andrews.htm)
    (3) Human Development Report 2005, UNDP, 2005, (http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/indicators.cfm?x=15&y=1&z=1)

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