By Eskinder Nega | April 30, 2010
Many political leaders, big and small, have come and gone over the
past two decades. Few have remained a permanent fixture though, firmly
placed in public consciousness as embodiments of the post-Derg years.
Seyoum Mesfin, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister now for an unprecedented 18
years and still counting; Bereket Simon, the acclaimed Godfather of
EPRDF’s malice; Professor Mesfin WeldeMariam, high profile human
rights activist-cum-controversial opposition politician; Haile
GebreSelassie, an inspiring gold medalist turned successful business
man have endured prominently in the spotlight through the years (This
list excludes artists, about whom I confess almost complete ignorance;
but which is not so with the public.)
But there are two more public personalities whose name recognition
looms even higher amongst rural
and city folks alike, sustained by their consistent presence on state
media over the years: Meles Zenawi, PM and leader of the EPRDF; and
Beyene Petros, the only opposition figure who has been a
Parliamentarian since the first days of the Transitional Government,
established a mere month after the downfall of the Derg almost
nineteen years ago.
Beyene was a content scientist in May 1991 when leaders of the EPRDF
triumphantly led their army -- much of it mobilized in the last 24 months
of the conflict -- into Addis. He was reluctantly piloted in to the
political arena by his ethnic kin, who insisted that he represent them
in the national conference scheduled for June 1991, from which the
Transitional Government was to emerge. His first year in politics was
uneventful by the standard of subsequent years, though perhaps the
best in his political career so far, having served in both the
legislative and executive branches of government as a Parliamentarian
and Vice Minister of Education. The withdrawal of the OLF from the
Transitional Government was to end that honeymoon, with an enraged
Meles, responding to Beyene in parliament, once blurting “I was not
voted for (to be in parliament) because of my good looks," a sarcastic
allusion to the upper class persona of Beyene (he hails from a humble
background in actual fact). But not even Meles, who is serene and calm
at one moment and explosive and enraged the next, has ever accused him
of wavering from the legal framework; Beyene being the one reliable
politician, by universal consensus, that sincerely abhors any prospect
of violence. “He has been called a wimp for his commitment to
non-violence,’ says a pundit.
It is with these particulars in mind that the public and pundits alike
received news of his alleged incitement to violence with utter
disbelief. “Overthrowing a government that fails to keep its promise
to the people is not new, as it happens in different parts of the
world. In fact, it won’t last five years,” said Professor Beyene Petros
at a public meeting held in Addis last Sunday, thundered a press
release from the EPRDF on Monday. “Such statement is against the
constitution, and is subtly intended to provoke violence.” But the
EPRDF did not stop there, as it would have been expected to do so at
this point in the election season. “No party must expect to instigate
violence and expect to operate within the legal framework at the same
time. We call upon the NBEE to take measures against such anti-peace
statements,” summed up the EPRDF. Beyene responded by insisting that
all his remarks strictly adhere to the standards set by the
constitution. “ I spoke of a public that votes into and votes out of
power, all through the ballot box. And that is mandated by the
constitution. There was no incitement to violence,” said he to local
media.
Since no one else, including the EPRDF, really suspect otherwise, the
question that pundits are asking is: Why is the EPRDF rocking the boat
when almost all things appear to be going its way? Of course there are
still the minor tremors that it handles as a matter of routine. But
that is to be expected. Consider, for example, these three minor
tremors. The first: a report by Reuters, filed by its Addis-based
correspondent, Barry Malone, while on a trip to Nairobi, of an
opposition member allegedly killed last week, this time in Oromia. Reuters cited
citing Medrek as its source.
Berket Simon responded with indignant
fury, temporarily blocking Barry’s return to Addis. “Check with us
before you (foreign correspondents) file a story,” instructed Berket’s
office after refuting Medrek’s statement. But in the fast-paced world
of international news, securing the government’s prompt reply remains
as allusive as ever. Both sides expect trouble as the election and its
aftermath unfolds, with an expulsion or two in the event of street
protests. And second: an IMF report that projected Ethiopia’s growth
this year at only 4.6 percent, much lower than the double-digit growth
that the EPRDF has packaged its election campaign around. But a media
monopoly (Ethiopia’s small private press has so far remained
irrelevant) ensures that the majority will not hear from the IMF.
Finally, and more seriously, a bomb blast in Adi Daero, Tigray, killed
five people and injured 20 others on Saturday, days after EPRDF-supported
rebels attacked a military camp inside Eritrea. “The Eritrean
government is clearly behind it,” said an Ethiopian government
statement a day later, and now the popular sentiment in Tigray is growing
for a military strike against Eritrea. “There is widespread belief
that Meles habitually treats Shabiya with kid’s gloves. May be this
will be the catalyst that will drive many voters into the arms of
Arena (Gebru’s party),” says a pundit. Such calculation on the part of
the EPRDF leadership at the height of the election season could
endanger the uneasy peace at the Ethio-Eritrean border. “I don’t
think there will be war. But an Ethiopian response of some sort is
inevitable after the eletions,” said a Western diplomat upon my
inquiry.
Thus all three events were of manageable episodes that did not risk
to derail the elections from its almost scripted course. But there is
an unpublicsized element in EPRDF’s calculation that is clearly
troubling it. “Their obsession with street protests borders on
paranoia,” says an opposition leader. “But they know that we are in no
position to go down that road.” But scores of pundits cite the lessons
of history and acknowledge the reason behind EPRDF’s unease. “The
street protests of 1992 and 2005 were not instigated by political
groups,”says a pundit. “It could happen all over again. And they know
that.”
However, with the disarray in the opposition increasingly dominating
the news, the prospect of mass street protest is diminishing if not
disappearing. Disappointment and anger is rife amidst the public after
a faction of UDJ, the party of Birtukan Medeksa, upped its challenge
against the legal leadership of the party this week by instigating a
brawl at the party’s head office in Addis. “Their timing is terrible.
They could have waited until the elections are over,” says a prominent
member of the opposition. “At stake is the image of not only UDJ but
the entire opposition.” The faction convened what it said was a
congress/convention of UDJ two weeks ago and elected Professor Mesfin
WeldeMariam to the position of First Deputy President.
A ten-point
statement released after the meeting declared the suspension of UDJ’s
leadership, which includes Seye Abraha and Negasso Gidada, upheld the
party’s original program; and refuted the rational for UDJ’s
membership in Medrek. Proceedings of the meeting have already been
submitted to the electoral board, which registers political parties,
according to sources, raising the prospect of an awkward legal snag
for the eight-party coalition, Medrek. “I don’t expect them (the
EPRDF) to do anything before the elections,” says a political pundit,
“but this will be useful to break the will of Medrek after the
elections.” Ten people, including Professor Mesfin, were detained
by the police on Thursday after fist fights broke out between the two sides,
outraging the public, and, say pundits, damaging the image of the
opposition. “What effect this will have on the opposition’s prospect
in the elections this year is an open question. But a political
backlash against the Professor is easy to predict,” said a pundit as
he watched images of bloodied heads and broken car windows on state
television.
UDJ has condemned the move by Professor Mesfin WeldeMariam
et al, and is insisting that the meeting had nothing to do with it.
“We have confirmed that the permit issued for the meeting was not in
the name of UDJ,” said Asrat Tasse, an executive committee member, a
day after the meeting. “We have seen the permit issued.” Few expect
Professor Mesfin’s minority to garner much public support for what has
been viewed as a last minute nihilistic spoil-sport effort, but
pundits still expect it to forge ahead, blindind by fury against the
majority that expelled it - unfairly, it says-- from the party. In yet
another contentious move, Professor Mesfin accused the American spy
agency, CIA, of being one of three principal actors responsible for
CUD’s post-election breakup in his recently published book, Aguteni.
“He makes the assertion,” says a high school teacher, “but offers no
explanation.”
Indeed. But that is only because there is no plausible explanation.
BRIEF NEWS FROM ETHIOPIA.
Compromisng National Security?
Two high-flying journalists from state media were imprisoned at the
end of last week, allegedly caught while negotiating to sell film
footages from the archives of ETV to the Qatari-based Al Jezzera
television. HaileYesus Werku and Abdulsemed Mohammed, both of ETV,
now face the specter of long prison sentences under a stiff
anti-corruption statute.
The case is being handled by the
Anti-Corruption Commission, whose oversight was controversially
transferred from parliament to the PM; after, according to sources, it
pried too aggressively on senior EPRDF members. Since then the PM’s
significant action has been to sack and demote its naively independent
minded female head, herself a veteran of the armed struggle against
the Derg, to head an obscure government housing agency, shattering
institutional credibility and morale of employees.
ETV spokesperson
Tesfaye Mengiste’s remarks against the journalists, whom he accused of
“compromising national security”, has been widely derided as
hysterical and symptomatic of the politicization of state media. “The
state media now are more than news organization to them now,” says a
ETV journalist. “The mere act of independent thought is now actively
discouraged and penalized as it is in the EPRDF.”
Previous Articles
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Meles Zenawi, Lidetu Ayalew and Election 2010
The past of Seye Abraha et al in perspective
Notes from an Interstate Bus: A Farmer on Election 2010
Welcome to Ethiopia's Election 2010: The Case of Adwa
Also on Election 2010:
Part I | Part II | Part III | Part IV
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The writer, prominent Ethiopian journalist Eskinder Nega, has been in and out of prison several times while he was editor of one of several newspapers shut down during the 2005 crackdown. After nearly five years in the limbo, Eskinder, his award-winning wife Serkalem Fassil, and other colleagues have yet to win government permission to return to their jobs in the publishing industry. Email: serk27@gmail.com
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